Oregon Water Online
© Oregon Water CoalitionArchive for December, 2007
Early season forecasts expect 2008 flows near average
Despite a relatively light early-season snowpack across the Columbia River basin, water supply forecasters are predicting that the region’s streams will provide near or above average volumes for fish, hydro generation, irrigation and other uses next spring and summer.
That technically derived faith is fortified by fall precipitation that has soaked soils and blanketed the highest reserves with snow, and by continuing signals that La Nina conditions will prevail throughout the winter season.
A Dec. 13 “mid-month” water supply forecast issued by the NOAA Weather Service’s Northwest River Forecast Center predicts an outcome with 104 million acre feet gushing past the lower Columbia’s The Dalles Dam from January through July, 97 percent of the recent 30-year average.
That initial forecast mirrors what happened last winter season, strong input from the north (a prediction of 102 percent of average as measured at central Washington’s Grand Coulee Dam) and subpar water supplies from the east (a predicted volume at 93 percent of average past the lower Snake River’s Lower Granite dam next year).
The mid-month forecasts are admittedly cursory, taking into account a short-term assessment of future precipitation. No updated snow or runoff values are used in the statistical modeling. They are intended to show trends in water supply volumes. It included observed precipitation through Dec. 10 and assumed normal precipitation for the rest of the month.
A “final” monthly forecast will be issued after Christmas that involves a more thorough analysis and pools efforts of the NWRFC and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The statistical regression modeling inputs include snow water equivalent, monthly precipitation and in some cases previous streamflow volumes.
An “ensemble prediction system” forecast issued Tuesday by the NWRFC predicts a wetter future, water volumes in April through September at 106 percent of average at The Dalles, 111 percent at Lower Granite and 104 percent at Grand Coulee. ESP modeling method utilizes a physical based modeling system to simulate soil moisture, snow pack, regulation, and stream flow. The ESP accesses current hydrologic status such as moisture content, and uses historical meteorological data to create equally likely sequences of future hydrological conditions.
A separate modeling technique developed by the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission’s Kyle Dittmer is predicting the January-through-July volume to be 119.5 MAF, about 111 percent of average at The Dalles. The hydrologist-meteorologist uses sunspot counts, the Multivariable ENSO Index, and 20 analog water years to generate expected trends in temperature and precipitation.
Dittmer’s modeling analyzes the most recent three month’s climatic data and uses the La Nina/El Nino index to predict a most likely outcome, matching patterns witnessed during those previous years.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in a three-month outlook issued today says that a moderately strong cold event or La Nina continues to prevail. Those below normal surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific can affect weather around the world. They tend to make more likely a cooler, wetter winter in the Northwest.
Columbia Basin weather, particularly of late, fits the typical La Nina pattern, above average precipitation in the northern portions of the basin and lesser amounts to the south, Dittmer said. But that’s where winter snowpack accumulation really counts, unless you’re relying on Snake River water.
The story of Oregon water, an agricultural prospective
How much water does Agriculture use?
Water in agriculture is used to grow crops to produce food. Does Oregon agriculture use too much water? The answer is NO! For example, the amount of water used to irrigate some 200,000 acres in Eastern Oregon (most of the State of Oregon’s share) is less than 0.2 percent of the annual flow of the Columbia river.
Looking at it in another way, of all the water flowing down the Columbia, 365 days a year, 24 hours per day, agriculture uses less than 16 hours of that water in the whole year. Actually, 99.8 percent of the water in the Columbia River passes to the Pacific Ocean untouched by Oregon agriculture each year.
Irrigation practices have improved dramatically over the last couple of decades. For example, in eastern Oregon over 95% of all irrigated acreage uses sprinkler irrigation. Nearly all of that, highly-efficient center pivot irrigation systems. Drip irrigation where water is slowly applied around the crop roots, is increasingly being utilized.
Farmers around the region use computers and modems to call into a central computer network (the Northwestern Irrigation Network) to obtain crop water use information based on computer models which they use to scientifically time the amount and the duration of irrigation for each crop. They monitor soil moisture to measure the exact amount of water application. They use frequent sampling of the soil and leaf samples to determine the exact amount of crop nutrients needed. They use aerial and even satellite remote sensing to pinpoint and predict any problem areas.
Energy efficiency
Since the early 1980’s, irrigated agriculture throughout the Pacific Northwest has undertaken a very aggressive energy conservation program. New and more efficient sprinklers systems have replaced old ones. More efficient pumps and motors have been installed. New methods of water delivery have been introduced. More careful crop water monitoring and water application programs have been instituted. All these efforts have reduced the energy use in participating farms by 25 to 30 percent. A little known fact is that agriculture is basically one of the largest energy producers in eastern Oregon for example it takes about 1,500 kilowatt-hours of electricity per year per acre to grow a crop of potatoes. This is the same amount of energy a couple light bulbs in a house uses in a year. That one acre, using sun, water and soil, will produce about 30 tons of potatoes. To convert that to energy, will equate that for every unit of energy used, crops produce around 7 times that amount of energy.
Washington seeks comment on Lake Roosevelt
The Washington State Department of Ecology is beginning preparation of a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Lake Roosevelt Incremental Storage Releases Project—formerly called Lake Roosevelt Drawdown Project.
This project is being undertaken as part of the Columbia River Basin Water Management Program.
The Supplemental EIS will provide a more thorough evaluation of impacts associated with additional releases of stored water from Lake Roosevelt than was presented in a “Programmatic” EIS.
The project involves a proposal to divert up to an additional 132,500 acre-feet of water stored in Lake Roosevelt under the Bureau of Reclamation’s 1938 water storage right. The project includes withdrawals that would occur every year as well as withdrawals that would occur only during drought years. On an annual basis, 82,500 acre-feet of water would be released from storage for the following purposes:
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30,000 acre-feet of water for replacement of ground water used for existing irrigated agriculture in the Odessa Subarea,
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27,500 acre-feet for in-stream flow enhancement downstream of Grand Coulee Dam, and
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25,000 acre-feet for municipal and industrial use along the Columbia River.
In drought years, an additional 50,000 acre-feet would be released and apportioned as follows:
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33,000 acre-feet of water for existing, interruptible water right holders along the Columbia River mainstem, and
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17,000 acre feet of storage for in-stream flow enhancement downstream of Grand Coulee Dam.
The action being considered by Ecology is the issuance of water rights to implement the project.
The Supplemental EIS will evaluate the degree to which the incremental releases from Lake Roosevelt will add to or reduce existing impacts associated with reservoir operations including:
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Impacts on downstream stream flows below Grand Coulee Dam;
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Air quality and environmental health impacts associated with heavy metal contaminated lake sediments;
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Water quality impacts, including temperature and Total Dissolved Gases;
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Changes to surface and ground water flows;
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Impacts to tribal water rights;
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Potential for bank sloughing;
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Effects on resident fisheries in Lake Roosevelt;
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Effects on wildlife habitat and wetlands adjacent to Lake Roosevelt;
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Stranding of boat ramps, marinas, and swimming areas as well as economic impacts of decreased recreational opportunities;
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Impacts to hydropower generation; and
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Effects on cultural resources, including potential for exposure or resources and vandalism.
The Supplemental EIS will evaluate a number of different scenarios regarding the timing of the releases. It will also evaluate policy issues concerning apportionment of incremental releases for municipal and industrial users as well as interruptible water right holders. Policy choices will be evaluated for determining eligibility to receive water and for allocating water among eligible recipients.
The deadline for submitting comments is January 5, 2008.
Council recommends continued funding for survival study
The Northwest Power and Conservation Council on Wednesday recommended funding of from $800,000 to $900,000 annually during fiscal years 2008 and 2009 for portions of the Comparative Survival Study, a project coordinated by the Fish Passage Center.
The recommendation eliminates one element of the study, the PIT-tagging of juvenile chinook salmon and steelhead from lower Columbia River basin streams so their survival rate can be compared with that of upriver fish upon their return as adults.
In eliminating the upriver/downriver comparison, the Council was heeding the advice of the Independent Scientific Review Panel and Independent Scientific Advisory Board. The panels in a review of the CSS proposal said that three of the project’s four biological objectives meet the Council program’s scientific review criteria.
The planned comparison of SARs of upriver chinook that were transported through the federal Columbia/Snake river hydro system with downriver indicator stocks, did not, “because of inevitable confounding from other factors in establishing cause(s) of upriver/downriver differences that may be detected, regardless of sample size and detection power that could be achieved,” says the ISAB/ISRP Review.
The CSS is a field study of the survival of PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook and PIT-tagged summer steelhead through the Snake/Columbia river hydro system from smolts through returning adults, with a focus on relative survival of fish that traveled as smolts by alternative routes (e.g., in river, transported, different routes of dam passage, and different numbers of dams passed).
The project has been funded through the Council’s Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program since 1996. The Bonneville Power Administration supports the program and makes final funding decisions.
When the Council completed its program funding recommendation package for 2007-2009 it did not earmark any funding for the CSS project in 2008-2009, saying it would delay those decisions until a CSS retrospective report was completed and had been reviewed by the ISAB and ISRP. The contract for the work was earlier extended into fiscal year 2008, from Oct. 1 through February.
The funding will allow the continued PIT-tagging Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon, and increase the level of tagging for Snake River steelhead, in FY08 and FY09 to fulfill the first three CSS biological objectives, specifically 1) estimate smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs), 2) compare SARs to the SAR hydro goal, and 3) evaluate transport to control (T/C) ratios, according to a memo prepared by Jim Ruff, the NPCC’s manager, mainstem passage and river operations.
In all, about 244,000 chinook and 56,000 steelhead will be tagged for the study this year, Ruff said.
A Nov. 29 letter signed by Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Idaho Fish and Game, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service urged full funding for the proposal.
“The ISAB/ISRP review recognized the CSS is successfully implementing a large-scale monitoring program and the review supports the PIT tag marking of additional wild downriver groups to determine SARs and other population metrics for these stocks as part of regional monitoring and evaluation,” the letter says.
Parties give Redden views on collaboration, draft BiOp
Attorneys representing Columbia River basin tribes and states, and other interests told a U.S. District Court judge Wednesday that a collaboration with federal agencies went well in many regards in developing future protections for threatened salmon and steelhead that ply the river’s hydro system.
It was the “best shot” yet taken at resolving contentious scientific disagreements about what is best for fish—i.e. identify what is needed to restore depleted salmon stocks, according to Spokane tribal attorney Howard Funke.
“But we haven’t been able to throw the cat over the fence,” Funke said of the reduced, yet still significant, areas of disagreement.
Representatives of the four states with acreage in the basin and affected tribes have been engaged in discussions over the past two years with federal agencies regarding strategies that might be necessary to mitigate for federal hydro system effects on 13 fish stocks listed under the Endangered Species Act.
Judge James A. Redden ordered the “collaborative” remand in October 2005 after earlier that year declaring illegal NOAA Fisheries’ 2004 biological opinion on the Federal Columbia River Power System. The ESA requires NOAA assessments of whether or not federal “actions” jeopardize the survival of listed stocks.
Though involved federal agencies are charged with developing actions and NOAA holds final authority on judging the biological risks, Redden order the collaboration with the goals of:
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Developing items to be included in the proposed action; and
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Clarifying policy issues and reaching agreement or narrowing the areas of disagreement on scientific and technical information.
The judge called a status conference this week to discuss a draft FCRPS BiOp that has sprung from the collaboration. The document was released at the end of October and NOAA is taking comments on the draft through Jan. 4 with a final BiOp scheduled for completion by March 18.
The draft outlines a complex set of measures to change hydro system operations, restore habitat, improve hatchery operations and reduce predation in order to improve survival of the listed salmon and steelhead. The strategy, replete with performance standards and research, monitoring and evaluation to assess progress, both avoids jeopardy and puts, over time, each individual population on a trajectory toward recovery, according to federal officials.
The feedback through the court, and comments on the draft, “provide a good foundation to work from” as federal agencies build a final BiOp, according to Scott Simms of the Bonneville Power Administration. His agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation are the so-called “action” agencies. They developed the proposed action for hydro operations and off-site mitigation which was judged in the draft BiOp.
The tug-o-war going on within the court processes gives “a clearer view of just how difficult it is to operate the federal power system,” Simms said. Fish and wildlife, irrigators and other water users, navigation and power customers are among those affected. Individual states, and tribes, too, have often different views about how the available resources should be used.
“We were pleased with the outcome of the hearing,” NOAA’s Brian Gorman said. An extended deadline will allow talks to continue regarding any needed additional mitigation and scientific issues, and revisions to the draft where needed.
Council says many of its policies incorporated in draft BiOps
The Northwest Power and Conservation Council on Thursday signaled its support for the recently released draft biological opinions for the federal Columbia/Snake hydro system and upper Snake irrigation projects, and offered help in implementing the plans for resurrecting threatened salmon and steelhead stocks.
The letter approved in NPCC executive session Wednesday was sent in response to the NOAA Fisheries Service’s request for comments on the draft BiOps. Since the vote was taken in executive session, the vote tally was not available. The NPCC is made up of two members each appointed by the governors of Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington.
The draft BiOps, when made final, will replace strategies declared illegal in federal court. They describe dam operations, habitat and hatchery measures, predation reduction plans, research monitoring and evaluation and other actions intended to improve survival of fish stocks listed under the Endangered Species Act. The ESA requires NOAA BiOps to evaluate whether federal actions such as the operation of dams and accompanying mitigation package jeopardize listed stocks with extinction.
In court proceedings Wednesday, it was decided that the drafts will be revised and finalized by March 18. NOAA is accepting comments on the drafts through Jan. 4.
“We are pleased NOAA Fisheries has incorporated many of the Council’s policies into the draft biological opinions, including portions of the Council’s Mainstem Amendments of 2003,” according to the two-page letter signed by Council Chair Tom Karier of Washington.
“Your comments about the importance of subbasin plans for developing recovery plans and identifying habitat action opportunities are very welcome,” the letter says. “We commend the strong habitat component in the draft FCRPS Biological Opinion, as well as the increased emphasis on the importance of the lower river and estuary and incorporation of performance goals and standards.
“The Council supports continued improvements of fish passage and transport operations within the hydropower system.”
“We know the region’s expectations are very high for these biological opinions. The Council is prepared to assist the region to implement the biological opinions though our transparent public processes for independent science review, interaction with managers and other local entities, and funding recommendations,” according to the Council letter.
The NPCC is charged by the Northwest Power Act with creating a program that protects, mitigates and enhances all fish and wildlife, included listed stocks, impacted by the construction and operation of the federal hydro system.
Much of the BiOp’s envisioned habitat work, as well as other measures, will be funded through what the Council calls a Power Act/ESA integrated fish and wildlife program. The Bonneville Power Administration, which markets the federal power generated in the Columbia/Snake hydro system, funds the program.
The NPCC budget is now capped at $143 million for on-the-ground work and research projects and $36 million for capital projects annually. The BiOps promise an increased financial commitment to habitat restoration and protection and to hatchery improvements. Fish and wildlife costs incurred by Bonneville are levied on electricity rate payers.
“To facilitate that integration, we encourage NOAA Fisheries to submit appropriate projects or parts of the biological opinions for consideration by the Council in the program amendment process. Program amendment recommendations are due to the Council by February 1, 2008,” the letter says.
“The Council will also help by working with the action agencies and others to ensure the Council’s project solicitation and review process will direct funding toward helping primary focal species and addressing high-priority limiting factors in each subbasin.”
The letter suggests the appointment of key staff to meet regularly to discuss BiOp implementation.
For more information about the Council visit their web site online.
Study says sea lice from fish farms harming Salmon stocks
A University of Alberta study shows, for the first time, that parasitic sea lice infestations caused by salmon farms are driving nearby populations of wild salmon toward extinction.
The results, appearing in the Dec. 14 issue of the journal Science, show that the affected pink salmon populations have been rapidly declining for four years. The scientists expect a 99 per cent collapse in another four years, or two salmon generations, if the infestations continue.
“The impact is so severe that the viability of the wild salmon populations is threatened,” said lead author Martin Krkosek, a fisheries ecologist from the University of Alberta. Krkosek and his co-authors calculate that sea lice have killed more than 80 per cent of the annual pink salmon returns to British Columbia’s Broughton Archipelago. “If nothing changes, we are going to lose these fish.”
Previous peer-reviewed papers by Krkosek and others showed that sea lice from fish farms can infect and kill juvenile wild salmon. This, however, is the first study to examine the population-level effects on the wild salmon stocks.
“It shows there is a real danger to wild populations from the impact of farms,” said Ray Hilborn, a fisheries biologist from the University of Washington who was not involved in the study. “The data for individual populations are highly variable. But there is so much of it, it is pretty persuasive that salmon populations affected by farms are rapidly declining.”
According to experts, the study also raises serious concerns about large-scale proposals for net pen aquaculture of other species and the potential for pathogen transfer to wild populations.
“This paper is really about a lot more than salmon,” said Hilborn. “It is about the impacts of net pen aquaculture on wild fish. This is the first study where we can evaluate these interactions and it certainly raises serious concerns about proposed aquaculture for other species such as cod, halibut and sablefish.”
The data are from the Broughton Archipelago, a group of islands and channels about 260 miles northwest of Vancouver that is environmentally, culturally and economically dependent on wild salmon. To pinpoint the effect of salmon farms, the study used a large dataset collected by Fisheries and Ocean Canada that estimates how many adult salmon return from the ocean to British Columbia’s rivers each year. Extending back to 1970, the data covers 14 populations of pink salmon that have been exposed to salmon farms, and 128 populations that have not.
Sea lice are naturally occurring parasites of wild salmon that latch onto the skin in the open ocean. The lice are transmitted by a tiny free-swimming larval stage. Open-net salmon farms are a haven for these parasites, which feed on fish skin and muscle tissue. Adult salmon can survive a small number of lice, but juveniles headed from the river to the sea are very small, thin-skinned and vulnerable.
In the Broughton Archipelago, the juvenile salmon must run an 80-kilometre gauntlet of fish farms before they reach the open ocean. “Salmon farming breaks a natural law,” said co-author Alexandra Morton, director of the Salmon Coast Field Station, located in the Broughton. “In the natural system, the youngest salmon are not exposed to sea lice because the adult salmon that carry the parasite are offshore. But fish farms cause a deadly collision between the vulnerable young salmon and sea lice. They are not equipped to survive this, and they don’t.”
Preseason salmon return forecasts show 2008 increases
After witnessing relatively high, though steadily declining, spring chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River basin over the past eight years, fishery experts have high hopes and estimates for 2008.
Preseason forecasts completed this week predict an adult “upriver” spring chinook return to the river mouth of the Columbia of 269,500, which would triple this year’s tally and, if it materializes, be the third biggest run on record dating to the early 1970s.
The sockeye and upriver and lower river spring chinook return estimates are a first look at 2008’s potential by the Technical Advisory Committee, a panel of federal, state and tribal officials created initially to inform the ongoing U.S. v Oregon litigation.
The predicted 2008 upturn is based in large part on this past summer’s big return of “jacks,” sexually immature 2-year-old fish. There were 16,606 spring chinook jacks—fish in their third year of life—counted passing Bonneville Dam last spring compared to 2,908 in 2006 and a 10-year average of 8,234, according to totals posted online by the Fish Passage Center.
“The forecast is really dependent on jacks because we didn’t have a lot of 4-year-olds last year,” according to TAC Vic Chair Stuart Ellis, a fishery biologist with the Columbia Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. The forecast includes an anticipated 2008 return of 255,500 upriver spring chinook 4-year-olds, broodmates of last year’s jacks, but only 13,800 5-year olds. The upriver fish come from Columbia and Snake river tributaries above Bonneville and include Endangered Species Act-listed Upper Columbia and Snake River stocks.
“We’re trying to remind people that these forecasts are a preseason planning tool” with the final outcome yet to be determined, Ellis said. The fish runs are monitored during the season, primarily via dam counts and fish catch data, as Oregon and Washington fish and wildlife agencies plan and execute commercial and sport fisheries on the mainstem and tributaries. Idaho officials likewise establish tributaries fisheries based on the actual run size.
The spring chinook, and Spring Creek tule fall chinook, have in the past shown the widest variation in terms of the preseason forecasts matching up with the actual returns, Ellis said.
Along with the good news of a big anticipated upriver return comes some bad news, a Willamette River spring chinook 2008 forecast of only 34,000 adults to the mouth of the Columbia. That compares to a return of 40,468 this year and 59,700 in 2006. The recent five-year average including 2006 was 106,600.
Low Willamette numbers could complicate fisheries management, potentially pushing both sport and commercial mainstem fisheries above Portland’s Interstate 5 bridge to avoid impacts on the Willamette spring chinook, which is also ESA listed. The Willamette’s confluence with the Columbia is at Portland.
Last spring’s relatively meager return of upriver and lower river chinook served to dampen fisheries to come extent. The 2007 upriver spring chinook return to the Columbia was 78,500 adult fish, compared to the preseason forecast of 86,000.
Anglers caught and kept nearly 7,500 spring chinook on the mainstem in 2007, including 6,476 below Bonneville, according to Oregon and Washington summaries. Fish without a clipped fin and presumably of natural origin must be released by fishers.
New OWC blog now online
Oregon Water Coalition’s new internet web site and blog was unveiled in late November and promises to deliver additional and more complete content to our members or anyone interested in the important issues and developments OWC covers. The blog-based web site offers an interactive approach to coverage including the option for reader comment.
Unlike our monthly newsletter, occasionally edited for content, internet coverage will be unlimited by space and publishing deadlines. This will result in expanded and more timely coverage. Our goal is to keep you informed of all the latest issues and developments in water locally, regionally and nationally.
Indians protest wastewater use on sacred peak
Chanting and beating drums, American Indians marched to a federal appeals court to oppose the use of treated wastewater to make snow in Arizona mountains they hold sacred.
About 150 activists recently marched to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for a hearing in the case.
A three-judge panel of the court ruled in March that using the treated wastewater to allow expansion of the Arizona Snowbowl resort would violate the religious freedom of Navajos, Hopis and 11 other tribes who had sued to block the expansion.
However, the full appellate court decided to rehear the case. Snowbowl’s owners and the federal government had urged the court to reconsider, arguing the earlier ruling broke federal precedent and incorrectly applied provisions of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.
The 777-acre resort rests on the western flank of the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff. Resort owners also want to remove about 100 acres of forest and add a fifth lift to attract more skiers on manmade snow.
“The peaks are central to the practice of the Hopi religion,” said protester Leigh Kuwanwisiwma, director for the Hopi Cultural Preservation Office in Arizona. “The mountains and the kachina spirits … represent the heart and soul of our community.”
The U.S. Forest Service leases the land to the Arizona Snowbowl Resort. At the hearing, the 11-judge court was told the agency had the right to permit snowmaking on its own land.
Lane McFadden, an attorney representing the Forest Service, also said he considered the treated wastewater to be safe.
“I would let my kids play in that water,” he said.
As for imposing on Indian religious beliefs, McFadden said: “I believe their prayers will not be devastated.”
But Howard Shanker, an attorney representing several tribes, said the government “will contaminate their religious freedom” if snowmaking is allowed.
The appellate panel did not immediately rule in the case.
Arizona Snowbowl opened late in three of the last four years because of lack of snow, but is set to open soon, which would match its average opening date. The resort brings an estimated $10 million annually to Flagstaff’s economy.
